Gold, Energy, Agriculture & Industrial Metals — Live Prices, Energy Deep Dive & Analysis
Tracked via ETF proxies — no direct futures available. Includes uranium, lithium, rare earth minerals, hydrogen, and mining stocks. Prices shown are ETF share prices, not raw commodity prices.
Comprehensive energy sector analysis — crude oil, natural gas, refined products, energy ETFs with AI signals, OPEC+ monitoring, and leveraged ETF decay tracking.
| Contract | Symbol | Price | Change (1D) | Signal | Unit | Exchange | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Oil | CL=F | — | — | — | $/bbl | NYMEX | U.S. benchmark, Cushing OK delivery |
| Brent Crude Oil | BZ=F | — | — | — | $/bbl | ICE | Global benchmark, North Sea |
| Natural Gas | NG=F | — | — | — | $/mmBtu | NYMEX | Henry Hub delivery |
| RBOB Gasoline | RB=F | — | — | — | $/gal | NYMEX | Reformulated gasoline blendstock |
| Heating Oil | HO=F | — | — | — | $/gal | NYMEX | No. 2 fuel oil / diesel proxy |
| ETF | Name | Type | Price | AI Signal | Score | Decay Risk | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading energy ETF data... | |||||||
Current production quotas and compliance tracking for key OPEC+ members.
| Country | Quota (mb/d) | Actual (mb/d) | Compliance | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 10.0 | 9.0 | 110% | Swing producer |
| Russia | 9.9 | 9.5 | 104% | Co-leader |
| Iraq | 4.4 | 4.3 | 102% | Chronic over-producer |
| UAE | 3.2 | 3.1 | 103% | Capacity growth |
| Kuwait | 2.7 | 2.6 | 104% | Stable |
| Nigeria | 1.7 | 1.4 | 82% | Underperforming |
| Angola | 1.5 | 1.1 | 73% | Declining fields |
| Kazakhstan | 1.7 | 1.8 | 94% (over) | Overproducing |
Reference data — actual production figures are estimates and update monthly. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, IEA, S&P Global Platts.
| Metric | Latest | Prior | 5-Year Avg | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Inventories | 440 mb | 445 mb | 470 mb | Below avg (bullish) |
| Cushing OK Stocks | 24 mb | 26 mb | 38 mb | Very low (bullish) |
| US Production | 13.2 mb/d | 13.1 mb/d | 12.0 mb/d | Record highs |
| Strategic Reserve (SPR) | 370 mb | 372 mb | 620 mb | Historically low |
| Gasoline Inventories | 225 mb | 228 mb | 240 mb | Below avg |
| Distillate Inventories | 110 mb | 112 mb | 140 mb | Very tight |
Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Updated every Wednesday at 10:30 AM ET. Values are reference estimates — check eia.gov for latest.
Source: IEA Oil Market Report, OPEC World Oil Outlook. Demand estimates updated monthly.
Leveraged ETFs reset daily. In volatile, sideways markets, compounding losses (beta slippage) erode value even when the underlying asset ends flat. The table below shows theoretical decay for various holding periods assuming average daily oil volatility of ~2%.
| Holding Period | 1x Return | 2x Return | 2x Decay | 3x Return | 3x Decay | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Day | +2.00% | +4.00% | 0.00% | +6.00% | 0.00% | Perfect tracking |
| 1 Week (flat) | 0.00% | -0.40% | -0.40% | -0.90% | -0.90% | Minimal decay |
| 1 Month (flat) | 0.00% | -1.60% | -1.60% | -3.60% | -3.60% | Noticeable drag |
| 3 Months (flat) | 0.00% | -4.70% | -4.70% | -10.30% | -10.30% | Significant loss |
| 6 Months (flat) | 0.00% | -9.10% | -9.10% | -19.20% | -19.20% | Severe decay |
| 1 Year (flat) | 0.00% | -17.00% | -17.00% | -34.50% | -34.50% | Never hold this long |
| 1 Month (+10% trend) | +10.00% | +18.40% | -1.60% | +25.80% | -4.20% | Trending helps but decay persists |
| 1 Month (-10% trend) | -10.00% | -21.60% | -1.60% | -33.60% | -3.60% | Decay amplifies losses |
Assumes ~2% average daily volatility. Actual decay varies with realized volatility. Higher volatility = faster decay. In high-vol oil environments (3-5%/day), multiply decay estimates by 2-3x.
| Pair | Bull | Bear | Leverage | Underlying | Best For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E&P Stocks | GUSH | DRIP | 2x | S&P Oil & Gas E&P | Sector momentum |
| Crude Oil | UCO | SCO | 2x | WTI Futures | Pure oil directional |
| Energy Sector | ERX | ERY | 2x | Energy Select Sector | Broad energy exposure |
| Oil (1x) | USO | — | 1x | WTI Futures | Longer holds OK |
| E&P Equities | XLE | — | 1x | Energy Select SPDR | Core energy allocation |
| Oil Services | OIH | — | 1x | Oil Services Stocks | Services/drilling cycle |
| E&P Pure | XOP | — | 1x | S&P Oil & Gas E&P | Equal-weight E&P |
For the full Oil & Energy analysis with multi-timeframe signals and position tracking, see the dedicated Commodities Dashboard.
| ETF | Name | Type | Expense Ratio | Holdings | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | Physical | 0.40% | Physical gold bars | Largest gold ETF. No roll risk. Tax as collectible (28% max). |
| SLV | iShares Silver Trust | Physical | 0.50% | Physical silver bars | Silver's higher volatility means larger position swings than GLD. |
| PPLT | abrdn Platinum ETF | Physical | 0.60% | Physical platinum | Lower liquidity than GLD/SLV. Wider bid-ask spreads. |
| PALL | abrdn Palladium ETF | Physical | 0.60% | Physical palladium | Most volatile precious metal ETF. Auto catalyst demand driven. |
| USO | United States Oil | Futures | 0.60% | Front-month WTI | Subject to contango decay. Not for long-term holding. |
| UNG | United States Nat Gas | Futures | 1.06% | Front-month NG | Severe contango decay. Best for short-term tactical trades only. |
| COPX | Global X Copper Miners | Equity | 0.65% | Copper mining stocks | Leveraged play on copper via miners. Adds equity market beta. |
| DBA | Invesco DB Agriculture | Futures | 0.85% | Diversified ag futures | Optimized roll strategy reduces contango drag vs naive front-month. |
| CORN | Teucrium Corn Fund | Futures | 1.14% | Corn futures (3 months) | Spreads across 3 contract months to reduce single-month roll risk. |
| WEAT | Teucrium Wheat Fund | Futures | 1.14% | Wheat futures (3 months) | Same 3-month structure as CORN. Geopolitical sensitivity. |
| DBC | Invesco DB Commodity | Futures | 0.85% | 14 commodity futures | Broad exposure. Optimized roll. Top holdings: oil, gold, corn. |
| GSG | iShares S&P GSCI | Futures | 0.75% | S&P GSCI components | Energy-heavy (60%+). Best for energy-bullish commodity exposure. |
| PDBC | Invesco Optimum Yield | Futures | 0.59% | 14 commodity futures | K-1 free structure. Active roll optimization. Most tax-efficient broad commodity ETF. |
Note: Physical metal ETFs (GLD, SLV, PPLT, PALL) are taxed as collectibles at 28% max long-term rate. Futures-based ETFs issue K-1 forms (except PDBC). Always consult a tax advisor.
Safe haven assets with dual roles: monetary store of value and industrial applications. Gold remains the ultimate portfolio hedge.
The lifeblood of the global economy. Pricing driven by complex interplay of geopolitics, supply dynamics, and macro conditions.
"Dr. Copper" and peers — economic bellwethers reflecting global manufacturing activity and infrastructure investment.
Food security fundamentals driven by weather, planting cycles, and global demand patterns.
Tropical commodity markets where climate change vulnerability meets emerging market demand growth.
Commodity prices are ultimately determined by the physical balance between supply and demand. Unlike financial assets, commodities are consumed — creating natural scarcity dynamics.
The futures curve shape reveals market expectations and carrying cost dynamics:
Most commodities are priced in USD, creating an inverse relationship with the dollar index (DXY). When the dollar weakens:
Commodities are a classic inflation hedge — they ARE inflation (raw input costs).
Commodities move in long-duration super-cycles lasting 15-25 years, driven by structural shifts in supply and demand:
Understanding how commodity ETFs work is critical for long-term holders:
The CFTC publishes weekly positioning data that reveals who is on which side of the trade:
Gold and the US Dollar Index maintain one of the strongest inverse correlations in finance. A weakening dollar makes gold cheaper in foreign currencies, boosting global demand. This relationship is strongest during risk-off periods.
"Dr. Copper" tracks economic expansion closely. When stocks rally on growth optimism, copper demand from manufacturing and construction follows. Divergences between copper and equities are often early warning signals.
Energy costs are direct CPI inputs. Rising oil prices feed through to transportation, manufacturing, and food costs within 2-3 months. Oil leads inflation — it doesn't follow it.
The single most important driver for gold. When real rates (nominal - inflation) are negative, the opportunity cost of holding gold turns positive. The 10Y TIPS yield is the key metric to watch.
Corn, wheat, and soybeans are moderately correlated due to shared acreage competition, weather patterns, and input costs. Soybeans and corn compete for Midwest acreage, creating an inverse planting dynamic.
The "digital gold" correlation has strengthened during macro uncertainty. Both assets benefit from monetary debasement concerns and serve as alternative stores of value, though BTC volatility is ~5x higher.
Despite both being energy commodities, natural gas and oil have diverged significantly due to different supply dynamics. US shale gas abundance keeps nat gas cheap while oil faces OPEC+ constraints. The correlation strengthens during extreme macro events.
China consumes ~50% of global copper. Manufacturing PMI readings above 50 signal expanding demand and typically lead copper price moves by 1-2 months. Watch the Caixin PMI for the best signal.
Gold acts as portfolio insurance during equity stress. When VIX spikes above 30, gold typically rallies as safe-haven flows accelerate. The correlation is non-linear — strongest during crisis periods, weak during calm markets.
Crude oil carries a persistent geopolitical risk premium estimated at $5-15/barrel. Events in the Middle East, Russia sanctions, and shipping lane disruptions (Strait of Hormuz, Suez Canal) directly impact supply expectations and pricing.
AI analyzes momentum, trend alignment, seasonality, correlation signals, and fundamental context. Scores range from -100 (strong sell) to +100 (strong buy).
Commodity futures involve substantial risk of loss. Leverage amplifies both gains and losses. Never risk more than 1-2% of account per trade. Margin calls can force liquidation at worst possible time. Understand contract specs, first notice dates, and delivery obligations before trading futures.
Trade the mean-reversion of the gold-to-silver ratio. Historical average ~60-70:1.
3:2:1 crack spread: refining margin from crude oil to gasoline and heating oil.
| Commodity | Symbol | Exchange | Contract Size | Tick Size | Tick Value | Margin (approx) | Trading Hours (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | GC | COMEX | 100 troy oz | $0.10 | $10 | $11,000 | 6p-5p Sun-Fri |
| Silver | SI | COMEX | 5,000 troy oz | $0.005 | $25 | $9,000 | 6p-5p Sun-Fri |
| Platinum | PL | NYMEX | 50 troy oz | $0.10 | $5 | $4,500 | 6p-5p Sun-Fri |
| Palladium | PA | NYMEX | 100 troy oz | $0.05 | $5 | $16,000 | 6p-5p Sun-Fri |
| Copper | HG | COMEX | 25,000 lbs | $0.0005 | $12.50 | $7,000 | 6p-5p Sun-Fri |
| WTI Crude | CL | NYMEX | 1,000 barrels | $0.01 | $10 | $8,000 | 6p-5p Sun-Fri |
| Brent Crude | BZ | NYMEX | 1,000 barrels | $0.01 | $10 | $9,000 | 6p-5p Sun-Fri |
| Natural Gas | NG | NYMEX | 10,000 mmBtu | $0.001 | $10 | $4,500 | 6p-5p Sun-Fri |
| Corn | ZC | CBOT | 5,000 bushels | 1/4 cent | $12.50 | $1,500 | 7p-7:45a, 8:30a-1:20p |
| Wheat | ZW | CBOT | 5,000 bushels | 1/4 cent | $12.50 | $2,000 | 7p-7:45a, 8:30a-1:20p |
| Soybeans | ZS | CBOT | 5,000 bushels | 1/4 cent | $12.50 | $3,500 | 7p-7:45a, 8:30a-1:20p |
| Coffee | KC | ICE | 37,500 lbs | $0.0005 | $18.75 | $5,500 | 4:15a-1:30p |
| Cocoa | CC | ICE | 10 tonnes | $1.00 | $10 | $6,000 | 4:45a-1:30p |
| Sugar #11 | SB | ICE | 112,000 lbs | $0.0001 | $11.20 | $1,200 | 3:30a-1:00p |
| Lumber | LBS | CME | 27,500 bdft | $0.10 | $2.75 | $2,200 | 9:00a-2:55p |
Note: Margin requirements are approximate initial margins and vary by broker. Always check current requirements with your FCM. Micro and mini contracts available for many commodities at reduced margin.